The expression takes on its full meaning after Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Donald Trump at his golf course in Turnberry, or in light of the 39% tariffs that the United States are threatening to impose on Switzerland. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. Often quoted, this phrase has been attributed to Danish wisdom, Niels Bohr, Mark Twain and Pierre Dac, among others. Despite its uncertain origin, the saying remains timeless when it comes to anticipating market trends. Donald Trump and his constant U-turns are giving it a new lease of life, while forecasters – even the most prestigious ones – are chasing after news that always seems to elude them. Nevertheless, it is clear that the steady news flow seems to require constant adjustments. Since Donald Trump's inauguration, we have taken a somewhat opposite approach, making few changes to our allocations. This was a bold choice at first, but ultimately a wise one, as it has allowed us to avoid a few missteps. However, we felt it was wise to partially secure some of the equity gains achieved this year by spending a small premium on market hedging. The small fraction of profits to be invested in order to get through the summer with peace of mind seemed attractive at a time when US stock valuations are particularly stretched. We are discussing in more detail these topics in this newsletter.
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