After a first month of the year as eventful as 2025 was, one question often comes to mind for investors: will the trends continue? In short, will 2026 looks like 2025 in terms of stock market performance? The same leading assets are still in the lead, despite a tumultuous end to the month: despite a drop of nearly 9% on the last trading day of the month, gold still rose by 13% in January. Despite a 30% drop in the same session, silver also ended the month up nearly 20%. Taking a closer look, the market appears to be "playing" an inflationary boom even modest. This is undoubtedly the only scenario that reconciles the strength of metals and outperforming industrial stocks and emerging markets. This modest inflationary boom scenario implied by market behaviour in January seems "reasonable" to us. We are detailing in this newsletter on how to implement it while keeping in mind the following risk factors: the unpredictability of the US President, the expensive valuation of the US market and the tensions on long term rates.
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